Early fast cost estimates of sewerage projects construction costs based on ensembles of neural networks
Authors:
- Michał Juszczyk,
- Tomáš Hanák,
- Miloslav Výskala,
- Hanna Pacyno,
- Michał Siejda
Abstract
This paper presents research results on the development of an original cost prediction model for construction costs in sewerage projects. The focus is placed on fast cost estimates applicable in the early stages of a project, based on fundamental information available during the initial design phase of sanitary sewers prior to the detailed design. The originality and novelty of this research lie in the application of artificial neural network ensembles, which include a combination of several individual neural networks and the use of simple averaging and generalized averaging approaches. The research resulted in the development of two ensemble-based models, including five neural networks that were trained and tested using data collected from 125 sewerage projects completed in the Czech Republic between 2018 and 2022. The data included information relevant to various aspects of projects and contract costs, updated to account for changes in costs over time. The developed models present satisfactory predictive performance, especially the ensemble model based on simple averaging, which offers prediction accuracy within the range of ±30% (in terms of percentage errors) for over 90% of the training and testing samples. The developed models, based on the ensembles of neural networks, outperformed the benchmark model based on the classical approach and the use of multiple linear regression.
- Record ID
- CUT2fe08daa8bea47688b7546f588502d60
- Publication categories
- ;
- Author
- Journal series
- Applied Sciences-Basel, ISSN 2076-3417, Monthly
- Issue year
- 2023
- Vol
- 13
- No
- 23
- Pages
- [1-24]
- Article number
- 12744
- Other elements of collation
- schem.; tab.; wykr.; Bibliografia (na s.) - 22-24; Bibliografia (liczba pozycji) - 61; Oznaczenie streszczenia - Abstr.; Numeracja w czasopiśmie - Vol. 13, Iss. 23
- Substantive notes
- Section: Civil Engineering
- Keywords in English
- sewerage project, sanitary sewer networks, construction costs, construction project, early cost estimates, fast cost estimates, neural networks ensembles, artificial intelligence
- ASJC Classification
- ; ; ; ; ;
- DOI
- DOI:10.3390/app132312744 Opening in a new tab
- URL
- https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/13/23/12744 Opening in a new tab
- Related project
- Predykcja kosztów realizacji obiektów budowlanych zgodnie z koncepcją MacroBIM z wykorzystaniem sztucznej inteligencji. . Project leader at PK: , ,
- Language
- eng (en) English
- License
- Score (nominal)
- 100
- Score source
- journalList
- Score
- Publication indicators
- Uniform Resource Identifier
- https://cris.pk.edu.pl/info/article/CUT2fe08daa8bea47688b7546f588502d60/
- URN
urn:pkr-prod:CUT2fe08daa8bea47688b7546f588502d60
* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis, and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or PerishOpening in a new tab system.