Modelling of agricultural commodity price effects on the fiscal performance and economic growth in Ukraine
Authors:
- Victor Shevchuk,
- Roman Kopych
Abstract
This paper analyses the effects of agricultural raw materials prices upon fiscal policy indicators and gross domestic product (GDP) output in Ukraine, on the basis of the VAR/VEC model using quarterly data for the period of 2002–2018. The results indicate a positive effect of agricultural commodity prices on GDP, with both government expenditure and revenue declining in the wake of favorable commodity price developments. As expected, higher agricultural commodity prices are associated with a real exchange rate (RER) appreciation, which in turn brings about an increase in government expenditure and revenue combined with an expansionary effect on GDP. Furthermore, agricultural commodity price and RER shocks are characterized by asymmetrical effects upon output. Among other results, there are positive output effects by both government expenditures and revenues, while the reverse causality suggests a decrease in fiscal variables following an increase in GDP. Several implications for stabilization policies are discussed.
- Record ID
- CUTd46fb84074304f06aa197100e2ef6b38
- Publication categories
- ;
- Author
- Journal series
- Information Systems in Management, ISSN 2084-5537, e-ISSN 2544-1728, Quarterly
- Issue year
- 2019
- Vol
- 8
- No
- 1
- Pages
- 47-56
- Other elements of collation
- tab.; wykr.; Bibliografia (na s.) - 55-56; Bibliografia (liczba pozycji) - 14; Oznaczenie streszczenia - Streszcz. ang.; Numeracja w czasopiśmie - Vol. 8, No. 1
- Keywords in English
- agricultural commodity prices, fiscal policy, GDP, real exchange rate, Ukraine
- DOI
- DOI:10.22630/ISIM.2019.8.1.5 Opening in a new tab
- URL
- http://ism.wzim.sggw.pl/ Opening in a new tab
- Language
- eng (en) English
- License
- Score (nominal)
- 5
- Uniform Resource Identifier
- https://cris.pk.edu.pl/info/article/CUTd46fb84074304f06aa197100e2ef6b38/
- URN
urn:pkr-prod:CUTd46fb84074304f06aa197100e2ef6b38
* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis, and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or PerishOpening in a new tab system.