Predicting delivery volumes for petrol stations under conditions of stochastic demand
Authors:
- Vitalii Naumov,
- Augustyn Lorenc,
- Agnieszka Solarz
Abstract
Technological processes of freight transport are characterized by stochasticity of indicators describing its efficiency. The mentioned randomness is usually could be explained by the stochasticity of demand for transport services. Consideration of the demand parameters stochasticity is especially important in planning deliveries of petrol products, as far as additional costs caused by delays in the deliveries, in this case, could be extremely high. Thus, the accurate prediction model could contribute significantly to the reduction of costs for the distribution of petrol products.The paper proposes an approach to forecasting the delivery volumes for petrol stations. The authors have developed the prediction model based on time series. The paper illustrates results obtained with the use of the developed model for different cases of the season duration as the predicting model parameter. The obtained results show that the optimal season duration differs for various types of petrol products.
- Record ID
- CUT8c5f5e648fa040088d3f56b00c3ab876
- Publication categories
- ; ;
- Author
- Pages
- 137-142
- Other elements of collation
- tab.; wykr.; Bibliografia (na s.) - 141-142; Bibliografia (liczba pozycji) - 21; Oznaczenie streszczenia - Abstr.
- Book
- CLC2 2018 Logistics, Distribution, Transport & Management : 8th Carpathian Logistics Congress, December 3rd-5th 2018, Prague, Czech Republic, EU : conference proceedings, Carpathian Logistics Congress : CLC, 2018, Ostrava, TANGER Ltd., ISBN 978-80-87294-88-8
- Keywords in English
- petrol demand forecast, delivery planning, Winter’s model, loss function
- URL
- https://www.confer.cz/clc/2018/2551-predicting-delivery-volumes-for-petrol-stations-under-conditions-of-stochastic-demand Opening in a new tab
- Language
- eng (en) English
- License
- Score (nominal)
- 5
- Additional fields
- Indeksowana w: Web of Science
- Uniform Resource Identifier
- https://cris.pk.edu.pl/info/article/CUT8c5f5e648fa040088d3f56b00c3ab876/
- URN
urn:pkr-prod:CUT8c5f5e648fa040088d3f56b00c3ab876
* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis, and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or PerishOpening in a new tab system.