Probabilistic and fuzzy approaches for estimating the life cycle costs of buildings under conditions of exposure to risk
Authors:
- Edyta Plebankiewicz,
- Wiesław Meszek,
- Krzysztof Zima,
- Damian Wieczorek
Abstract
The paper discusses issues related to life cycle costs in construction. Life cycle cost is a key element in the assessment of environmental sustainability in construction and it provides a tool for the economic evaluation of alternative sustainability options exhibiting di erent capital, operating costs or resource usage. The authors reviewed selected models of estimating life cycle costs in construction, drew attention to the complex mathematical models developed so far, namely those which take into account only financial risks and those which involve the possibility of the influence of other risk factors and described the main assumptions accompanying the original model for estimating the whole life costs of buildings, including: reasons for choosing theory of possibility, division and parametrization of input data. The aim of this paper is to confirm the validity of the model structure assumptions adopted by the authors by comparing the originally selected fuzzy approach to calculating life cycle costs taking into account the risk with the probabilistic approach, as well as indicating the domain in which the probabilistic approach will complement the fuzzy approach chosen by the authors. The paper presents a comparison analysis of two approaches used in the authors’ model, a fuzzy and a probabilistic approach, recommended by the ISO standard 15686-5:2008. The authors used the Oracle Crystall Ball software in their simulations.
- Record ID
- CUTf2ddcdcbabf64e87943156a40369a93e
- Publication categories
- ;
- Author
- Journal series
- Sustainability, ISSN , e-ISSN 2071-1050, Biweekly
- Issue year
- 2020
- Vol
- 12
- No
- 1
- Pages
- [1-15]
- Article number
- 226
- Other elements of collation
- rys.; tab.; wykr.; Bibliografia (na s.) - 13-15; Bibliografia (liczba pozycji) - 42; Oznaczenie streszczenia - Abstr.; Numeracja w czasopiśmie - Vol. 12, Iss. 1, Spec. Iss.
- Substantive notes
- Special Issue: Sustainability and Risks in Construction Management
- Keywords in English
- life cycle costs, whole life costs, risk, cost addition for risk, probabilistic approach, fuzzy approach, certainty level, buildings
- DOI
- DOI:10.3390/su12010226 Opening in a new tab
- URL
- https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/1/226 Opening in a new tab
- Language
- eng (en) English
- License
- Score (nominal)
- 100
- Publication indicators
- = 21
- Additional fields
- Indeksowana w: Web of Science, Scopus
- Uniform Resource Identifier
- https://cris.pk.edu.pl/info/article/CUTf2ddcdcbabf64e87943156a40369a93e/
- URN
urn:pkr-prod:CUTf2ddcdcbabf64e87943156a40369a93e
* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis, and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or PerishOpening in a new tab system.