Modelling of fiscal policy effects on agriculture and industry in Ukraine
Authors:
- Viktor Shevchuk,
- Roman Kopych
Abstract
This paper analyses the effects of fiscal policies upon agriculture and industry in Ukraine, with the SVAR model using quarterly data for the 2001-2016 period. The results indicate a positive effect of the government spending on both agricultural production and industrial output, while an increase in the government revenue is of the same expansionary impact for the latter only. Among other results, there is a weak negative short-lived spillover from agriculture to industry, with no causality running on the reverse. As agricultural production in Ukraine is associated with a higher level of government spending in the short run, a direction of causality seems to be just the opposite for industrial output. Both agriculture and industry bring about higher budget revenues in the short run, but for the latter this effect is lagged and more persistent. Controlling for fiscal policy effects, the nominal (real) exchange rate depreciation seems to be expansionary for industrial output. For agriculture, a nominal exchange rate depreciation is restrictionary in the short run, with an expansionary effect in the long run (however, this result is not supported in specification with the real exchange rate). Several implications of fiscal policy effects are discussed.
- Record ID
- CUT8f8536c4df45401bb7c29d1ded311863
- Publication categories
- ;
- Author
- Journal series
- Information Systems in Management, ISSN 2084-5537, e-ISSN 2544-1728, Quarterly
- Issue year
- 2017
- Vol
- 6
- No
- 2
- Pages
- 131-142
- Other elements of collation
- tab.; wykr.; Bibliografia (na s.) - 142; Bibliografia (liczba pozycji) - 17; Oznaczenie streszczenia - Sterszcz. ang.; Numeracja w czasopiśmie - Vol. 6, No. 2
- Keywords in English
- agriculture, industry, fiscal policy, nominal (real) exchange rate, Ukraine
- URL
- http://ism.wzim.sggw.pl/ Opening in a new tab
- Language
- eng (en) English
- License
- Score (nominal)
- 5
- Uniform Resource Identifier
- https://cris.pk.edu.pl/info/article/CUT8f8536c4df45401bb7c29d1ded311863/
- URN
urn:pkr-prod:CUT8f8536c4df45401bb7c29d1ded311863
* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis, and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or PerishOpening in a new tab system.